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Origin documented
“A yardstick”
What it means
A standard for comparison.
Where it comes from
A literal stick of one yard, kept by drapers and used to measure cloth at the counter. Its accuracy was checked against the local standard, and a short yardstick was a prosecutable offence.
How sure are we?
Entirely literal, with the figurative sense following naturally. The yard was legendarily fixed by Henry I as the distance from his nose to his outstretched thumb, though that story is far better known than it is evidenced.